Does the Pacific Northwest Need an Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis? (H.R. 654)

What is H.R. 654?

(Updated August 26, 2021)

This bill would require the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to develop a plan for buying and installing an earthquake early warning system for the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of Oregon and Washington. FEMA would then identify the needed funding and make grants to states, Indian tribes, and local governments to implement it.

The president would be directed to establish an Earthquake and Tsunami Task Force for the purpose of developing a strategy and recommendations for the nation to prepare and plan for, mitigate, respond to, recover from, and adapt to an earthquake, tsunami or combined event involving the CSZ. Recommendations would include legislative and funding actions needed to implement the strategy, and the order of priority for implementing the strategy. FEMA would be responsible for executing the national effort to reduce the loss of life and property and protect the nation from an earthquake and/or tsunami.

The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act — which provides grants to state and local communities — would be amended to allow grant recipients to use hazard mitigation assistance for activities to reduce the risk of damage, hardship, loss, or suffering in any area affected by an earthquake on the following:

• Regional seismic networks in support of building a capability for earthquake early warning;

• Geodetic networks in support of building a capability for earthquake early warning;

• Seismometers, Global Positioning System receivers, and associated infrastructure in support of building a capability for earthquake early warning.

Argument in favor

Major earthquakes have occurred off the Pacific Northwest coast in the past, and the tsunami the next one causes could kill tens of thousands of people. An early warning system would give locals more time to get to a safe place when their current lead time is as little as 10 minutes after the ground stops shaking.

Argument opposed

The fault that could cause a major earthquake and tsunami in the Pacific Northwest — the Cascadia Subduction Zone — has historically had such sudden, violent quakes that a warning system would be of limited value. Besides, the next “big” earthquake could be relatively mild or not occur for hundreds of years.

Impact

People who live in the Pacific Northwest’s coastal areas; all levels of government representing Oregon, Washington, and northern California; and FEMA.

Cost of H.R. 654

The CBO estimates that enacting this bill would cost less than $500,000 annually over the 2018-2020 period to prepare a plan for installing the early warning system, and its other provisions wouldn’t affect spending or revenues.

Additional Info

In-Depth: Sponsoring Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) introduced this bill in advance of the 317th anniversary of the last major earthquake and tsunami produced by the Cascadia Subduction Zone in order to fund an early warning system that would hopefully save lives when the next big quake strikes:

“Tomorrow, we will mark the 317th anniversary of the last major earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone. If an earthquake of a similar magnitude hit today, the State of Oregon estimates that thousands will be killed or injured and Oregon will suffer $32 billion in economic damages. My legislation directs FEMA to identify critical funding to purchase and install an earthquake early warning system that could save thousands of lives, countless injuries, and billions of dollars of damage. It also directs the President to establish an Earthquake and Tsunami Task Force that will develop a strategy to better protect and prepare for major earthquakes and tsunamis on the Cascadia Subduction Zone that could devastate our coastlines. We must take the threat of a catastrophic earthquake seriously, and this legislation is a good first step.”

This legislation passed the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on a voice vote.

Of Note: Historically, the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) “slips” about once every 200-500 years and causes a major earthquake, the last of which occurred on January 26, 1700. The severity of “megathrust” earthquakes produced by the CSZ can exceed magnitude 9.0 on the Richter Scale if the entire fault is involved.

Eight million people live within the CSZ, which stretches from northern Vancouver Island to northern California and it’s comparable to the fault off of the Japanese coast that created the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami which caused the Fukushima disaster. FEMA has estimated that a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami could kill 13,000 people while injuring another 27,000; displace 1 million people and leave another 2.5 million in need of food and water.

A 2015  artitcle by Kathryn Schulz regarding the status of earthquake and tsunami preparedness in Oregon and Washington and the threat posed by a major CSZ quake won a Pulitzer Prize.

Media:

• Sponsoring Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) Press Release
  
• Republican Policy Committee
  
• CBO Cost Estimate
  
• The World Link