| 3.23.22

The Big 10-Year Proposal To Balance The U.S. Budget (H. Con. Res. 27)

Do you support or oppose this bill?

What is H. Con. Res. 27?

(Updated October 21, 2019)

This resolution would establish the budget for the 2016 fiscal year, and set budgetary level for fiscal years 2017 through 2025. It would provide relevant House committees with spending reduction targets over the 2016-2025 period.

For those of you who don’t want to go through the nitty gritty funding levels of this budget, here is a brief primer: This bill reforms the tax code through lower personal income tax rates, fewer loopholes, and lower corporate tax rates. It would repeal the Affordable Care Act in its entirety — including the Medicaid expansion — effectively starting the health care reform process over. It also plans reforms in Medicare and Social Security so they remain solvent for future generations. This budget would increase spending on national defense over the current baseline after 2016, and allots more funding for overseas contingency operations than the President’s request for 2016.

It would also set "recommended" levels for revenues for each fiscal year; establish a budget authority (i.e. authorized spending limits), project actual spending levels (a.k.a. outlays, or the money paid out by the U.S. Treasury), and estimate deficits and the amount of debt held by the public.

Fiscal Year 2016

Revenue levels: $2.666 trillion

Budget authority: $2.934 trillion

Actual spending: $3.009 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$342.278 billion

Publicly-held debt: $13.838 trillion

Fiscal Year 2017

Revenue levels: $2.763 trillion

Budget authority: $2.873 trillion

Actual spending: $2.893 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$130.555 billion

Publicly-held debt: $14.040 trillion

Fiscal Year 2018

Revenue levels: $2.858 trillion

Budget authority: $2.944 trillion

Actual spending: $2.297 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$68.909 billion

Publicly-held debt: $14.145 trillion

Fiscal Year 2019

Revenue levels: $2.974 trillion

Budget authority: $3.091 trillion

Actual spending: $3.062 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$87.984 billion

Publicly-held debt: $14.338 trillion

Fiscal Year 2020

Revenue levels: $3.099 trillion

Budget authority: $3.248 trillion

Actual spending: $3.205 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$106.079 billion

Publicly-held debt: $14.560 trillion

Fiscal Year 2021

Revenue levels: $3.241 trillion

Budget authority: $3.327 trillion

Actual spending: $3.298 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$56.944 billion

Publicly-held debt: $14.742 trillion

Fiscal Year 2022

Revenue levels: $3.388 trillion

Budget authority: $3.462 trillion

Actual spending: $3.452 trillion

On-budget deficit: -$63.775 billion

Publicly-held debt: $15.128 trillion

Fiscal Year 2023

Revenue levels: $3.550 trillion

Budget authority: $3.529 trillion

Actual spending: $3.497 trillion

On-budget deficit: $52.477 billion (surplus)

Publicly-held debt: $15.300 trillion

Fiscal Year 2024

Revenue levels: $3.722 trillion

Budget authority: $3.586 trillion

Actual spending: $3.538 trillion

On-budget deficit: $183.746 billion (surplus)

Publicly-held debt: $15.162 trillion

Fiscal Year 2025

Revenue levels: $3.905 trillion

Budget authority: $3.715 trillion

Actual spending: $3.685 trillion

On-budget deficit: $220.418 billion (surplus)

Publicly-held debt: $15.235 trillion

Argument in favor

The federal government has been on an unsustainable spending binge for decades, and this budget would allow the U.S. to rein in spending and finally balance the budget.

Argument opposed

Not only does this budget take until 2025 to balance the budget, but it drastically cuts the growth in spending on essential services that help vulnerable populations in the U.S. the most.

Impact

Everyone in the U.S., and all aspects of the federal government.

Cost of H. Con. Res. 27

The CBO has not yet analyzed the specific policies that compose this budget, but has analyzed this proposal and its projected impact on deficits. It also has analyzed the federal debt held by the public compared to the CBO’s Extended Baseline (basically current law), its Extended Alternative Baseline (which incorporates tax provisions that are due to expire), and scenarios where deficits are cut by $2 trillion and $4 trillion over a 10-year period. This budget proposal is the only scenario that the CBO found would yield a surplus in 2025. It also found the amount of federal debt held by the public would be 55 percent in 2025, compared to 79 percent under the Extended Baseline and 88 percent under the Extended Alternative Baseline.

Additional Info

Of Note:

House Budget Committee Chairman and sponsoring Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) anticipates that his proposal will encourage entrepreneurs and job creators to fuel economic growth, as it brings the budget into balance within 10-years by cutting $5.5 trillion in spending without raising taxes.

Ways and Means House Committee Chairman, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) strongly supports Price’s proposal, calling it “responsible” and stating that “our nation would be stronger and our economy would thrive.”

In his own budget proposal, the President outlines a very different way to fund U.S. operations. He has also referred to the proposal as “the classic trickle-down, top-down approach to economics that we know has failed.” As the New York Times puts it:

"The president’s budget increases taxes on the wealthiest, while the Republicans are calling for an overhaul of the tax code.

The president wants to increase domestic and military spending, while Republicans want to cut spending.

The president’s budget flattens out deficits, while Republicans want to eliminate them entirely.

The president’s plan flattens out the nation’s debt, while the Republican plans cut it by a quarter."

In tandem with this budget, Senate Republicans are planning their own budget proposal. It will likely be merged with the House version through the reconciliation process.

In-Depth:

The following are the budget authority and spending levels for specific categories during the fiscal years covered by this budget. Budget authority refers to the amount that each department or category is allowed to spend by Congress, while outlays represent the money that is actually spent.

It should be noted that when budget authority or outlays appear as negative numbers that means that those expenditures are being covered by offsetting receipts — which are businesslike transactions that usually originate with the public. For example, royalties paid to the government for oil extraction that occurs on public land would be treated as offsetting receipts.

The House Budget Committee has created definitions that accompany each budget function, which elaborate on the specific programs that are funded by each of these categories.

Medicare

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $577.7 billion with outlays of $577.6 billion. Both budget authority and outlays would stay near $580 billion through 2018, before jumping to $639 billion in 2019. From there, they would increase to $680 billion in 2020, $726 billion in 2021, $808 billion in 2022, $825 billion in 2023, $834 billion in 2024, before ending at $927 billion in 2025.

National Defense

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $531.3 billion with outlays of $582.5 billion. That is the only year when outlays are projected to exceed the budget authority. Budget authority increases by about $13 billion per year, and the annual increase in outlays ranges between $7 and $30 billion.

Veterans Benefits and Services

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $166.6 billion with outlays of $170.1 billion. Budget authority would grow at an average rate of $4.1 billion per year, while outlays would grow at an average rate of about $3.5 billion per year. In 2025, budget authority would be set at $203.5 billion with outlays of $202.3 billion.

Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $80.6 billion with outlays of $90.3 billion. Budget authority would increase to $94.4 billion, while outlays would grow at a slower pace to $94.7 billion in 2025.

Overseas Contingency Operations / Global War on Terrorism

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $94 billion with outlays of $44.3 billion. From 2017 to 2021 budget authority and outlays would range from $24.7 billion to $33.7 billion. Starting in 2022, new budget authority would be set at $0 and outlays would fall from $9.9 billion in 2022 to $0 in 2025.

International Affairs

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $38.3 billion with outlays of $42.9 billion. Budget authority increases by about $1.2 billion per year through 2025. Outlays decrease by about $2 billion in 2017, $1 billion in 2018, and $500 million in 2019, before increasing again by about $800 million per year from 2020 to 2025.

Transportation

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $36.7 billion with outlays of $79.1 billion. Between 2017 and 2025 budget authority would average $78.2 billion while outlays would average $78 billion per year.

Natural Resources and Environment

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $35.3 billion with outlays of $38.1 billion. These figures would steadily rise to just under $40.9 billion in budget authority with $40.4 billion in outlays in 2025.

Social Security

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $33.8 billion with outlays of $33.9 billion. Starting in 2017, budget authority would be brought into alignment with outlays, and they would increase annually by about $3.5 billion per year - ending at $65.7 billion in 2025.

General Science, Space, and Technology

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $28.3 billion with outlays of $29 billion. Both the budget authority and outlays gradually rise to a level of about $34 billion in 2025.

General Government

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority and outlays at $23.5 billion. Both budget authority and outlays would gradually increase to about $26.9 billion in 2025.

Agriculture

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at $20.1 billion with outlays of $21.1 billion. Both budget authority and outlays would increase into the $23 billion range in 2017 before steadily declining into the $19 billion range in 2023. Then budget authority and outlays would slowly increase to $20.2 billion and $19.8 billion, respectively, in 2025.

Energy

The 2016 fiscal year would set budget authority at -$3.5 billion with outlays of $654 million. Thereafter the budget authority would be about $900 million per year with outlays averaging about $400 million per year.