Education Department Dramatically Overestimates School Shootings — Do We Need Better Data Collection?

• More than two-thirds of school shootings reported by the Department of Education (DOE) never happened, according to an NPR investigation.
• While Americans debate how to prevent school shootings, most agree that no child should experience such a thing. Tackling a problem starts with accurate information.

Details

The DOE reported this spring that in the 2015-2016 school year:

“nearly 240 schools ... reported at least 1 incident involving a school-related shooting.”

However, when NPR reached out to all the schools where the reported shootings took place and searched media reports, it was able to confirm only 11 of the incidents.

According to NPR:

“The Education Department, asked for comment on our reporting, noted that it relies on school districts to provide accurate information in the survey responses and says it will update some of these data later this fall. But, officials added, the department has no plans to republish the existing publication.”

The DOE’s report was based on a data collection process that required every public school in the U.S. to answer a series of questions, including this one:

“Has there been at least one incident at your school that involved a shooting (regardless of whether anyone was hurt)?”

The DOE’s conclusion that 240 schools had experienced such an event greatly exceeds all other estimates, even those provided by gun-control advocates. As NPR explains:

“For comparison, the Everytown for Gun Safety database, citing media reports, listed just 29 shootings at K-12 schools between mid-August 2015 and June 2016. There is little overlap between this list and the government's, with only seven schools appearing on both.”

The DOE appears to have relied on the schools’ survey responses without any real checking, and NPR found that few of the schools had any idea who completed the survey and how.

Implications

As the country grapples with what to do about school shootings, the scale of the problem has real implications for public policy. As NPR notes:

“At least 53 new school safety laws were passed in states in 2018. Districts are spending millions of dollars to "harden" schools with new security measures and equipment. A blue-ribbon federal school safety commission led by Education Secretary Betsy DeVos is holding public events around the country, including one in Alabama Tuesday. Children are spending class time on active-shooter drills and their parents are buying bulletproof backpacks.”

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos is considering a proposal that could pave the way for allowing schools to use federal funds to arm teachers.

Reason magazine says the investigation provides a “reminder of how cautious we should be in evaluating data, even data reported by seemingly authoritative federal agencies.”

The National Review, which describes the investigation as “an act of journalism in the first degree,” concludes:

“[W]e should live our lives recognizing the proportionate risks. We can take precautions and live with confidence. So the next time you hear an alarming statistic, take it with a grain of salt. The government, it turns out, is not always right.”

NPR’s takeaway:

“Our reporting highlights just how difficult it can be to track school-related shootings and how researchers, educators and policymakers are hindered by a lack of data on gun violence.”

What do you think?

Should the government improve its processes for collecting data on school shootings? How should school shootings be prevented? Hit Take Action to tell your reps what you think, then share your thoughts below.

—Sara E. Murphy

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / fstop123)