Trump to Announce Clean Power Plan Replacement

The story

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will release proposed carbon emission regulations for the power sector today, according to multiple news outlets, continuing its rollback of Obama era environmental rules.

The proposed regulations will require only modest improvements in generator efficiency and could allow states to opt out of the rules altogether, according to Politico, which viewed a portion of the unpublished plan last week.

The plan would aim for the power sector to cut emissions 0.7 to 1.5 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, in contrast to the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan (CPP), which aimed for a 32 percent cut in power sector emissions.

Replacing the CPP is a major element of President Donald Trump’s deregulatory agenda and push to revive the domestic coal sector.

However, by proposing the regulation at all, the Trump administration is implicitly acknowledging a key environmental provision, known as the endangerment finding, which declares climate change a threat to human health and welfare. That finding is the legal backbone for almost all federal climate policy, and requires the government to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

Background

The CPP, finalized in 2015, aimed to set minimum emission standards for power plants and allow states to decide how to meet them. Generators that couldn’t meet the standards, like many coal plants, could have offset their power with electricity from less-polluting sources.

The U.S. Supreme Court put the CPP on hold in 2016 in response to arguments from coal plant owners, who argued that the rule’s design would force them to subsidize their competition.

The upcoming replacement rule is expected only to require minor improvements to generator efficiency that can be accomplished at existing units, thereby reducing the incentive to shift from coal to other sources of electricity.

Three-quarters of U.S. regulated electric utilities still want the government to pursue a decarbonization policy, although they’re split as to which strategy would be best. According to a 2017 survey, 18 percent want the CPP to be implemented, while 16 percent want even stronger standards, 14 percent want an economy-wide cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases, and 28 percent want an economy-wide price on carbon and other greenhouse gases.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

By some estimates, without the CPP, the U.S. is only likely to cut carbon emissions from the power sector by 10 to 18 percent by 2030. Scientists estimate that U.S. electric utilities must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2050 in order to keep global warming and its effects within manageable levels.

State policies could counteract Trump’s agenda, but the White House is aiming to stop some of those rules as well. Earlier this month, the EPA proposed to roll back efficiency rules for vehicles and revoke California’s authority to issue more stringent regulations.

The power generation and transportation sectors account for more than half of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Is regulation even necessary?

In some parts of the U.S., the price of renewable energy has fallen below the cost utilities pay to keep large coal and nuclear facilities online. That trend is expected to continue, which could speed utilities’ transition away from coal irrespective of environmental regulations.

A February 2017 report published by credit-rating firm Moody’s predicted that a shift in U.S. climate policy would not stall global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Key points from the report:

• Institutional and private sector forces will underpin global decarbonization efforts despite potential changes in U.S. climate policy.
• Most countries have reaffirmed their Paris Agreement commitments since the 2016 U.S. elections.
• Sub-national green initiatives will be important in moving national policies forward, including in the United States.
• Institutional focus on environmental risks and green finance will remain strong.
• The number of private sector companies pursuing climate change strategies will continue to rise.
• Prevailing market and technological trends support investment in less carbon-intensive initiatives.

When it’s proposed, the Trump administration’s CPP replacement will be subject to a 60 day comment period. Like the auto emissions rule rollback, it will likely face court challenges from environmental groups and liberal states.

What do you think?

Do you support a rollback of the Clean Power Plan and other environmental regulations? Why or why not? Hit Take Action to tell your reps what you think, then share your thoughts below.

—Sara E. Murphy

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / acilo)