Britain Held a Snap Election Today, What Does it Mean for the U.S.?

Polls have closed in today’s snap election in the United Kingdom, and if the exit polls are accurate British politics could deliver a surprising electoral result for the second consecutive summer — albeit on a smaller scale than last year’s Brexit vote. Today’s exit polls suggest that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives will remain the largest party in Parliament, but will be 12 seats shy of the 326 they need to maintain their majority and avoid forming a coalition government with smaller parties.

While the outcome is still uncertain and final results likely won’t be known until the early hours of Friday morning in the U.S., if results mirror the exit poll there will be a "hung parliament" and May will likely need to bring in members of parliament (MPs) from outside her party to remain prime minister. A hung parliament would create an opportunity for the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, to form a coalition of his own to become the prime minister of a minority government. (It’s worth noting that the British exit poll is generally accurate, but in the 2015 general election it underestimated the number of Conservative MPs by 14 and overestimed Labour MPs by seven.)

The snap election had been called by Prime Minister May in the hope of building on Conservatives’ majority to make it easier to advance their agenda, including a hard brexit. In Britain, general elections are held every five years but a snap election can be held during the interim period if a two-thirds vote of Parliament supports it, or if there’s a vote of no confidence in the government which is decided by a simple majority of MPs.

What does it mean for the U.S.?

If May, who was the first foreign leader to visit President Donald Trump at the White House, remains prime minister then Brexit will proceed as planned and things like a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and Britain (which the House has called for) will be more likely to move forward. May has expressed her commitment to the "Special Relationship" with the U.S., despite having expressed some differences with Trump.

However, if May is unseated and Labour leader Corbyn is able to form a minority coalition, things will be more complicated, although the U.S.-British alliance will remain and Brexit will still go forward to a lesser extent. Corbyn is on the opposite end of the ideological spectrum from Trump on issues such as defense, climate change, and economic policy. He said Trump’s actions toward North Korea were "recklessly escalating the confrontation" and condemned the unilateral missile strikes on a Syrian airbase from which a chemical weapons attack on civilians was carried out.

Have questions about politics? Let us know! Send us an email and you could see your answer in a future post.

— Eric Revell

(Photo Credit: Public Domain)