Growing Signs of Middle East Turmoil: What Role for the U.S.?

The story

Across the Middle East, troubling signs of tension and simmering conflict have been growing in recent months. Taken together, a picture of increasing regional instability appears to emerge.

Roundup

Iran

As the future of Iran’s nuclear program grows increasingly uncertain, the issue is stoking tensions with the U.S. and Israel.

While President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani traded unrestrained threats of war over the weekend, Israel and Iran are fighting proxy battles in Syria that risk spilling over into a broader conflict.

According to the Wall Street Journal:

“The Israeli strikes in Syria play into a broader conflict unfolding in the Middle East, where Islamic State’s collapse has ushered in a power struggle among regional and foreign actors.”

Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly preparing to launch cyberattacks on critical U.S. infrastructure – electrical grids, water plants, and healthcare facilities – while the state of U.S. cybersecurity is a matter of near-constant debate.

Israel

Israel and the Hamas militants who control Gaza have entered a fresh cycle of violence that analysts fear could escalate. A New York Times analysis asks, “Is War a Miscalculation Away?”

While a tenuous truce is in place for now, hundreds of Israeli settlers stormed the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem on Sunday. The site on which the mosque sits is among the holiest to both Jews and Muslims, and has long been a flashpoint.

This comes after Israel passed a law restricting self-determination to Jewish people, which the country’s Arab minority likened to Apartheid.

Egypt said over the weekend that Israel’s new law undermines the chances for Middle East peace, owing to its “ramifications that consecrate the concept of occupation and racial segregation.”

Reuters reports:

“Israel launched its newest air defense system on Monday on the Syrian frontier, where Damascus’s Russian-backed forces have been routing rebels, as Moscow sent envoys for what it called ‘urgent’ talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Russia has expressed deep concern about a possible military confrontation between Iran and Israel, saying it would do “everything possible” to prevent escalation.

Syria

Also over the weekend, more than 400 “White Helmet” volunteer rescue workers and their families were evacuated from Syria with the help of Israel and other Western powers on Sunday, according to multiple reports. The White Helmets are known for saving civilians affected by the Syrian conflict. However, NBC News reports:

“[T]he White Helmets are not without controversy. They only operate in opposition-held areas… Syrian government supporters accuse them of being politically affiliated with the rebel groups.”

Iraq

Iraq has been experiencing a wave of protests which began in the south of the country and spread to central provinces in response to deteriorating living conditions, corruption, increasing unemployment, and perceived Iranian interference.

A current heat wave is making matters worse, as temperatures soar past 120 degrees in parts of the country, rendering the lack of reliable electricity and clean water intolerable.

Some analysts trace the water shortage to Iran’s damming activity on its side of the border, and the electricity shortage to the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

Meanwhile, the Defense Department says it has “accelerated offensive activity against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria targets in designated parts of Syria and Iraq.”

The Pentagon said in December that the U.S. had about 5,200 troops in Iraq and 2,000 in Syria. However, the Pentagon stopped reporting troop numbers in those countries this April, amid reports that the U.S. had thousands more troops there than it had acknowledged publicly.

Yemen

A proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to rage in Yemen, with the U.S. backing its Saudi Arabian ally. The resulting humanitarian disaster continues to worsen.

Water, Internet

Meanwhile, governments across the region are increasingly restricting their citizens’ access to the Internet, and expanding their censorship of information. The Wall Street Journal reports:

“Authoritarian governments in the Middle East are increasingly adopting a version of China’s approach to online censorship, walling their citizens off from swaths of the internet and denying access to popular websites, often with the aid of Western technology.”

The entire region is also increasingly struggling with water shortages and scarcity, which is expected to intensify political tensions over water resources that are shared across borders.

What do you think?

Do signs point to growing conflict in the Middle East? If so, what role – if any – should the U.S. play? Hit Take Action to tell your reps what you think, then share your thoughts below.

—Sara E. Murphy

(Photo Credit: iStock.com / gorodenkoff)