by Countable | 5.24.17
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its updated analysis of the GOP’s bill to repeal and replace Obamacare on Tuesday, finding that about one million more Americans would be covered in 2026 under the latest version of the American Health Care Act than under its predecessor which would've led to 24 million people without coverage. It also found that health insurance premiums would rise until 2020, before decreasing at a faster rate than the earlier version of the AHCA to a level lower than they’d be under current law in 2026, although the decrease would range from four percent for states that don’t pursue waivers to as much as 20 percent or more in states that do.
The CBO is the independent agency that analyzes legislation for Congress. It has been criticized for the inaccuracy of its estimates in the past, such as when it overestimated enrollment in Obamacare exchanges by 18 percent. In today’s report, it acknowledged that its estimate should be viewed with the understanding that there’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding how the federal government, states, insurers, employers, individuals, and healthcare providers respond to the changes in law.
Cost: The American Health Care Act would reduce spending by $1.111 trillion over the 2017-2026 period and reduce tax revenues by $992 billion, which on net would lead to $119 billion in deficit reduction over that period. That deficit reduction total is $32 billion less than the version of the bill the CBO scored in late April, and $218 billion less than the original version of the bill.
Health insurance coverage: In 2018, it’s projected that 14 million more people would be uninsured than under current law because some individuals would opt to not buy health insurance without facing the tax penalty imposed by Obamacare’s individual mandate. As a result of changes that take effect later, the number of uninsured relative to current law would rise to 19 million in 2020 and 23 million in 2026.
In total, 51 million people would be uninsured in 2026 under the AHCA, as opposed to 28 million people who wouldn’t have insurance that year if current law remains in effect.
Health insurance premiums: The CBO estimates that premiums will continue to increase until 2020, when they will begin to decrease. In 2018, increases would average about 20 percent before slowing to 5 percent in 2019, which would be attributable to fewer healthy enrollees buying health insurance without the individual mandate in effect.
Starting in 2020, premiums would be expected to decrease, but changes would vary based on states receiving and implementing waivers to the essential health benefits or community rating mandates. Without making specific predictions about which states will request and implement waivers, the CBO examined three general approaches states could take and gave a high-level estimate of the number of Americans it’d apply to:
In states that don’t request waivers, premiums would be four percent lower in 2026 than under current law. The CBO expects this to be the case for about half the U.S. population.
In states that receive waivers and make moderate changes to regulations — likely more to essential health benefits than community ratings — premiums would be roughly 20 percent lower in 2026 than under current law, although they’d range between 10-30 percent lower. The CBO expects this to apply to about one-third of the U.S. population.
In states that receive waivers for both essential health benefits and community rating, premiums would be lower than under existing law and could vary significantly based on how a state implements its waiver. The CBO expects this to apply to about one-sixth of the population
The CBO was created in 1974 to provide Congress with independent, nonpartisan analysis regarding how proposed legislation would impact the budget through taxes and spending. It is staffed by experts in economics, public policy, and the tax code who consult with outside experts when it comes to certain aspects of the budget. The two congressional budget committees created the rules and regulations that govern the CBO’s operations.
The current director of the CBO is Keith Hall, an economist who previously served as the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for four years after stints with the Depts. of Commerce and Treasury, and the White House Council of Economic Advisors.
Tell your reps what you think of the American Health Care Act and its latest CBO estimate using the Take Action button.
— Eric Revell
(Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons)
Written by Countable
So...it'll cost a tiny bit less, but 23 million less people will have insurance. Wow, great job guys. What a waste of time. Why don't you call up Trump's buddies in Australia, since Trump admitted their healthcare was better than ours, and ask them how they do it? Why can't the GOP get anything right? You guys have done NOTHING but ruin people's lives and the environment since Trump took office.
100% unacceptable. No. Absolutely not. Never.
Only 23 million lose healthcare instead of 24 million. That's great, right? 70% of Medicaid goes to the elderly and the cuts should put them on the street. Then they can die quickly with Trumpcare. Anyone else tired of winning?
Eliminate health care benefits for congress and federal employees FIRST!
It is clear that this bill will hurt millions of people. Without affordable healthcare to millions of people, we will see more and more people being treated in emergency rooms, thereby creating hospital bills to increase for those who can pay. A domino effect will take place causing insurance premiums to increase. But the worst part is that those who wrote this bill have no compassion whatsoever. And from what I know, the "conservatives" who make up the majority of the House and Senate, say they are Christian. This is not the way I interpret the sayings and acts of Jesus.
Trump promised health care for "all Americans",not some more than Obamacare. Time fot Congress, especially Repiblicans, to deliver the goods or consider droppng the amlple Federal health insurance plan that you granted to yourself! If budget cuts are needed let's start with your excessive benefiits that we do not share
This isn't a healthcare bill. This is a tax cut bill for the rich and a way to get rid of the mandate so as a country we don't have to give a rat's ass about one another. Whatever happened to the Republican Party?
PLEASE do not pass this mess of a bill. Too many will lose coverage and it's those with the most need. What are we if we do not protect those in need?
23 MILLION people to loose healthcare and an 800% increase for seniors healthcare premiums! The House of Representatives should be ashamed! Impeach Trump! Impeach Pence! Get rid of the entire corrupt administration and those that blindly support them! Time to clean house (and Senate). Anyone that supports or votes for Trumpcare needs to be voted out of office! Special elections across the board!
Quid pro quo: take our healthcare and we will vote you out of office.
WHY IS THE GOP HEALTH BILL BEING DESIGNED IN SECRET? Why are there no public hearings or testimony from health experts or economists? Is this how our government should be run? You should be ashamed GOP!
Dear GOP we are tired of your party politics and not looking out for the needs of all Americans! Quit taking from the middle class and poor and giving to the rich! Stop taking care of yourselves instead of our needs! If you worked for major corporations you would all be fired for your inability to collaborate across the aisle. Grow up! Stop acting like cowards and lemmings. Stand up to your peers! Stand up to your boss and for once do what is right for America!!! You need a health care committee made up of both democrats and republicans to develop a solution that will take care of all people. The committee needs to include diversity that at minimum parallels our national demographics. That means it needs to include women who are 50% of the population and minorities!
Do not pass the AHCA. It's cruel. It's unfair. It's not what was promised and it only benefits the wealthy. Besides it means we will just have to start over when we vote your happy asses out of office.
Oh good, maybe we should hold a lottery to see who gets to be one of the lucky extra million! Or maybe some Health Care Hunger Games?
Why don't they just put every citizen on the same insurance Congress gets - oh, no, they couldn't do that! Don't want to be a common citizen with no alternatives.
Rep Fred Upton, you championed and voted for Trumpcare before understanding its CBO score! Why did you push so hard to move this forward before we knew all the facts? How irresponsible of you!!! You work for the people of Michigan! Your actions and decisions do not support our needs! Suggest you rethink your position or look for a new job!
Oh, well, if it's only going to be 23 million stripped of healthcare, then I suppose that's all right. I was upset when it was going to be 24 million, but who could object to a measly 23 million? Look, if you really want to fix healthcare, there are lots of good ideas out there. See, for example, Josh Barro's piece on how to do high risk pools which published today. But none of the good ideas are in this bill. And that's not an accident, is it, because this is not a healthcare bill. It's a tax cut for the super rich bill. You do realize that all of this will be in the history books one day? Do you really want the faces of your grandchildren and great-grandchildren burning in shame when they read about how hard you fought to take away health care?
Which one million people? The healthy individual who can afford to buy it??
Second attempt essentially just as bad as the first, the AHCA should be trashed. Just like the proposed budget, it hurts too many people.
Okay stop trying to mess this up further. One payer, all insured makes the most sense. Other countries can do this. We can't seem to get there because our motivating force is making the rich richer. Until your outlook changes and you start focusing on what's best for all Americans I feel there is no hope for you to do the right thing. I'm disgusted and feeling betrayed.