Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

A recent, high-level disaster simulation at Johns Hopkins demonstrated how poorly prepared the United States may be for a global health pandemic.

Cause for concern

• Public health experts believe we are at greater risk than ever of experiencing large-scale outbreaks and global pandemics like those we’ve seen before, including SARS and Ebola.
• Most infectious disease experts would tell you they fear pandemic influenza more than anything. Lest we forget, the 1918 flu pandemic remains the deadliest in human history. It killed 50 million people.
• Right now, an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncontained, and an outbreak of the rare Nipah virus — for which there is no cure — has killed at least 13 people in India.
• The Johns Hopkins simulation, which included a bipartisan group of current and former high-ranking U.S. government officials, ended with 150 million deaths globally, as players failed to develop a vaccine in time.
• The exercise took place one week after the top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw was disbanded.

Possible remedies

• The simulation designers called for greater inter-agency coordination, as well as international oversight — perhaps by the United Nations — of risky experiments, such as synthesizing viruses from scratch.
• They also recommended that the United States invest more heavily in ultra-fast paper diagnostics and new vaccine manufacturing systems that could provide antidotes in months rather than years.

What do you think?

Are you concerned about pandemic risk? Do you think the United States is doing enough to prepare? What additional steps—if any—do you think we should take? Hit Take Action, then share your thoughts below.

—Sara E. Murphy

(Photo Credit: U.S. Army Medical Corps via National Museum of Health & Medicine)