Study Projects Health Exchange Premiums Will Rise 18% Due To GOP-Backed Changes

What’s the story?

A study on the projected effects of the introduction GOP-backed changes to the insurance marketplace was put out Monday by the left-leaving Urban Institute. The authors state that, in response to many health individuals leaving the Obamacare health insurance exchanges, premiums on the exchanges will rise in 2019 an average of 18.2 percent.

Healthy individuals are expected to leave the exchanges for two reasons. One, due to the repeal of the individual mandate starting in 2019 via the tax reform bill that was passed in late 2017. Two, authorization via an executive order in October 2017 of the introduction of short-term health plans.

Short-term health plans, which will be allowed to last for up to a year, will be cheaper than conventional plans. This could be a boon to younger, healthier consumers. But the plans are not subject to the legal restrictions placed on the health exchange plans. They may not cover mental health care or prescription drugs, and can exclude individuals for pre-existing conditions.

The study projects that 4.2 million people will likely enroll in the new plans, with 1.7 of those previously uninsured and the rest, 2.5 million, leaving the health exchanges to enroll in the new plans.

The study also projects that 6.4 million individuals will simply forego insurance once there is no penalty for not maintaining coverage.

Those approximately 9 million people exiting the health exchanges will drive up premium costs for older, sicker individuals who cannot purchase the skinnier plans or forego insurance entirely.

Individuals who have low enough incomes to qualify for federal subsidies will see the 18 percent rise in premiums mitigated somewhat. The study's authors project that to cover subsidies government costs will rise 9 percent, or $33 billion, in 2019.

What do you think?

Will you forego insurance once the individual mandate is no longer in effect, or will you migrate to a short-term plan? Will you stay in the exchange? Are you concerned about these projected premium increases? What will you do to manage that level of increase in your monthly expenses?

Tell us in the comments what you think, then use the Take Action button to tell your reps!

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— Asha Sanaker

(Photo Credit: Healthcare.gov)