by Axios | Updated on 12.24.18
A wide swath of market-watchers expect the U.S. economy in 2019 to be the worst since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, potentially putting President Trump in a hole as he heads into his re-election race.
Flashback: A year ago, we wrote about a rare and enviable trend: synchronized global recovery. Now, we have synchronized global retreat.
Last week was Wall Street's worst in 10 years. If the Dow and S&P 500 finish at their current levels, they'll have their worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression.
Between the lines: Against that backdrop, many in the financial world were agape when Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin tweeted, with no real explanation, that yesterday he had "convened individual calls with the CEOs of the nation's six largest banks."
Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group, one of the sharpest observers of the collision of Washington and Wall Street, tells me in an email with the subject line, "For the night is dark and full of terrors":
Another worry, according to Dan Senor, a fund executive and former adviser to Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator-elect Mitt Romney: "If we were to face a real financial crisis in 2019, we will be in much choppier waters than 2008."
And Krueger notes how different the U.S. administration is now:
Most forecasts reflect the Washington chaos and global slowing:
Be smart, from Axios markets editor Dion Rabouin: "The market is looking for a hero because everything is terrible right now around the globe."
P.S. A bit of perspective from Bloomberg: "Even with its 17 percent drop over the last three months, the S&P 500 has risen 18 percent since Election Day."
Written by Axios
Follow this Action Center to stay updated on new posts
The economy is cyclical, just like the climate. I’m not concerned about either.
As someone who tends to stick with my employer for long periods (20+ years), I’m concerned that I’ll be working until I die, because our retirement funds are a fleeting dream. They keep hemorrhaging money, year after year. The longer that Gen-Xers have to work, the harder it becomes for the next generation to step up and take their place. A quiet, well-funded retirement is no longer part of the American Dream, as owning a house will no longer be part of the American Dream for Millennials.
I like how Republicans take credit for Democratic successes, while crippling the economy in the same breath. If you want economic progress, pay the workforce enough so they can live with dignity and “pursue happiness” as it were.
All these negative fiscal predictions are NOT HELPFUL !
Funny how this always seems to happen when a certain group takes over. And how another group has to come in and clean it up. I guess 2020 and beyond will tell us if this time we learned the lesson.
@George and @Robert: You guys should realize that calling it fear mongering or otherwise trying to belittle this release doesn’t change the fact that you’re incorrect. Try this one on for size: this report is a moderate, calm and cool assessment of some facts and you guys are the ones spreading falseties, presenting radical irrational ideas, and presenting the implementation of a solution of this crisis. DT had a hand in this shortcoming. The sooner you realize that, the sooner you can drop your undying loyalty to a guy who cares about his image more than he cares about you
More FAKE NEWS from this crap app. Deleted.
The Trump crash is coming! Strap in gonna be a hell of a ride ! Will Americans ever get trickle down is just a looser for all but the super rich?
Thanks to 45’s policies and his stupid tariffs it’s causing the whole economy to crash and it’s just a matter of time before we end up in a really bad recession and that will cause massive job cuts and things will be much worse!
The market is finally realizing the absurdity of the GOP administration.
It jumped 7000 points since 2016. If it loses half that it is still up. Corrections happen. Tech is wildly overvalued. Bit coin is a joke and governments worldwide are still spending too much on social engineering and less on paying for it.
The weak economy started with the tax scam and is totally owned by 45 and the republicans. Hang on tight. Could be worse than when bush was asleep at the wheel.
Funny. When the republicans leave office, they leave behind a financial mess for the democrats to clean up. I guess the republicans are just messy spenders.
Dow Jones is telling use something is coming it’s not good
President Trump has done great work to improve our economy and keep the stock markets up especially after 8 years of Obama’s smiley Saul Alinsky assault on economy and work force as he said so Proudly those jobs will not be coming back BUT thank God President Trump is bringing those jobs back!
Just a thought. Republicans don’t want to hold Donnie to account for fear of angering their base. But if they let things continue apace and the economy tanks, their base will be the most likely to ditch them. I’m thinking integrity and their word to uphold their constitutional duty is a bridge too far so we’re left with self serving motivation. I’ll take that, lol. But the final question is do we really want legislators that are so weak and spineless serving us?
The economy is on a cycle of it’s own, that occasionally reflects, but more often defies executive branch decisions. Read the history. The economy performed better under Clinton and Obama, than either of the Bushes or Trump.
Ever since my dad’s family crisis failed to rebound after the financial crisis of 2008/9, so many have said the economy has been much better but I fail to see how that is possible. More and more people are saving their money and spending far less than they were in the early 2000s. As of late, wage growth has slowed tremendously and this affects the weirder economy. Yeah the economy looked good on paper and in the stock markets but on the ground where the real evidence lies, there is no truth to this matter. The increasing cost of living in most places far exceeds wages and the fact that Democrats are calling for more spending and higher taxes only makes people more skeptical of government. Not to mention the Fed bringing interest rates back up to pre-recession limits, these are all causes for deep concern. Heck my wife and I can’t even find a reasonable house for sale in our area unless if you can get a loan for over 300k dollars for a decent house, or spend 150k on a house and an additional 100k at improving it. It’s not a market for the well-off but a market for the banks to make people borrow at higher levels they can’t afford, which is the buyer problem and not so much the banks.
Fake news and fear mongering doesn't do anyone any good.
Is it my imagination, or does the economy tank whenever a Rep. is in power?....Just asking.