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Conflict Brewing Over Tax Bill Cost Estimates

by Countable | 12.12.17

UPDATE: December 12, 2017: The Treasury Department released a one-page analysis of the nearly 500-page GOP Senate tax bill.

This is despite Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s claims that "over 100 people" were working on a detailed analysis.

The Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy analysis suggested that the GOP Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would raise $1.8 trillion over the next decade.

This number is at odds with the 12-page analysis by Congress’ nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation. The JCT projected that the Senate tax plan would add $1 trillion to the deficit, after accounting for economic growth.

Senate Minority leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the Treasury analysis was "nothing more than one page of fake math."

In their analysis, the Treasury acknowledged "that some economists predict different growth rates."

Countable's original story appears below.

What’s the story?

Despite promises to do so, the Treasury Department hasn’t yet released a formal estimate of how the GOP tax code overhaul will impact the economy-at-large.

Why does it matter?

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has repeatedly said the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will "not only…pay for itself, but it will pay down debt" with a surge of economic growth. But even as the bill is being debated (and potentially voted on), the Treasury has yet to release its estimate. This is a day after the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) announced that the TCJA would add $1 trillion to the deficit — after accounting for that surge in economic growth.

The Treasury inspector general has launched an inquiry into whether the department hid – or even did - an analysis.

What do you think?

Should the Senate wait on the Treasury Dept. estimate? Have the recent changes to TCJA changed the JCT’s estimate? Should Mnuchin be investigated? Hit Take Action, tell your reps, then share your thoughts below.

—Josh Herman

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(Photo Credit: jcarillet / iStockphoto)

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