Civic Register
| 11.15.18
Scientists Disclose Errors in Ocean Warming Research
Do we need to do more to combat climate change?
- Two weeks ago, the journal Nature published a study concluding that the world’s oceans had absorbed roughly 60 percent more heat in the last quarter century than previously estimated.
- The study received wide media coverage, including here on Countable.
- The scientists involved in the study said this week that their work contained inadvertent errors that made their conclusions seem more certain than they actually are, submitting corrections to their original publication.
What does it mean?
“The central conclusion of the study — that oceans are retaining ever more energy as more heat is being trapped within Earth’s climate system each year — is in line with other studies that have drawn similar conclusions. And it hasn’t changed much despite the errors. But [study co-author Ralph] Keeling said the authors' miscalculations mean there is a much larger margin of error in the findings, which means researchers can weigh in with less certainty than they thought.”
Keeling also told the Post:
“Unfortunately, we made mistakes here. I think the main lesson is that you work as fast as you can to fix mistakes when you find them.”
Oceans and climate change
While this particular study’s margin of error increased with these corrections, scientists still have a strong body of research and data on climate change and oceans.
- Average global sea surface temperature increased over the course of the 20th century and continues to rise.
- From 1901 through 2015, temperatures rose at an average rate of 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.
- Sea surface temperatures have been higher during the past three decades than at any other time since reliable observations began in 1880.
- January 2018 research also found that the upper 2,000 meters (more than 6,000 feet) of ocean waters were far warmer in 2017 than any year since record-keeping began.
- Oceans absorb about 93 percent of the extra energy from increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. That extra heat damages ocean life and causes sea-level rise. The oceans’ ability to continue absorbing atmospheric energy is limited, meaning that it’s likely to diminish over time and accelerate atmospheric heating.
What do you think?
Do we need to do more to combat climate change? Tell your reps what you think, then share your thoughts below.
—Sara E. Murphy
(Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios)
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